MSFT34 — Microsoft Corporation
Tecnologia / Software Empresarial / Cloud / IA|Event Impact Analysisstream
Premissas (2026-04-17)USD mode, FX 4.99
revenue
335.00 USD bn
op_margin
0.45 pct
sbc_rate
0.04 pct
fx
4.99 BRL/USD
multiple_adj
0.00 pct
shares
7.4k MM
Modelo
op_income=revenue * op_margin * 1000=150.8k
ebitda_usd=op_income=150.8k USD MM
ebitda_brl=ebitda_usd * fx=752.2k R$ MM
price_per_bdr=price_per_share / 24=0.00
Valuation
EBITDA Ajustado (DB)
US$ 150.750 MM
Dívida Líquida
US$ 0 MM (DL/EBITDA 0.00x)
Preço Atual
R$ 77.80 Implied EV/EBITDA 0.77x
Stream Price (base)
R$ 77.80
Event Impact | Preço Atual R$ 77.80
Clique em um evento para inspecionar referências e citações.
EventoEsperadoGanhoGanho/Preço
Pendentes (10)
+P/E re-rating from 21x to 28x+ (mean reversion to 5y average)1 ref2 checks2028-06+R$ 15.56+20%+
multiple_adj 0 +0.2 → 0.2 pct
+Azure AI monetization acceleration (+20pp contribution to Azure growth)2 refs2027-06+R$ 5.81+7%+
revenue 335 +25 → 360 USD bn
+CAPEX peak passes — FY2027 CAPEX normalizes to US$70-75 bn2 refs1 check2027-12+R$ 5.19+7%+
op_margin 0.45 +0.03 → 0.48 pct
+Copilot M365 adoption inflection (>10% penetration of 400M seats)1 ref2028-06+R$ 3.46+4%+
op_margin 0.45 +0.02 → 0.47 pct
+Xbox + Activision integration delivers revenue acceleration FY27+1 ref2027-12+R$ 1.16+1%+
revenue 335 +5 → 340 USD bn
-Regulatory antitrust action — forced unbundling of Azure/Office or OpenAI restrictions1 ref2028-12R$ 3.48-4%+
revenue 335 -15 → 320 USD bn
-AI monetization disappointment — CAPEX remains high without proportional revenue1 ref2027-12R$ 5.19-7%+
op_margin 0.45 -0.03 → 0.42 pct
-OpenAI dependency risk — partnership restructuring or competition from open-source1 ref2028-12R$ 6.22-8%+
multiple_adj 0 -0.08 → -0.08 pct
-Major Azure cybersecurity breach triggers enterprise customer churn1 ref1 check2027-12R$ 6.22-8%+
multiple_adj 0 -0.08 → -0.08 pct
-Macro recession reduces enterprise IT spending globally1 ref2027-06R$ 7.78-10%+
multiple_adj 0 -0.1 → -0.1 pct